Round 11 of Stat Attack sees one Australian side, the Melbourne Rebels, in bye mode while the other four sides all face foreign opposition but within friendly timeslots.

As per usual, with thanks to Opta Stats and @OptaJonny, we previewed the round ahead purely by the numbers in this week’s edition of Stat Attack.

Crusaders vs. Reds, (#CRUvRED) Friday May 6th, 17:35 AEST

This week’s action kicks off in Christchurch, as the two sides who met in the 2011 Super Rugby final play off for the fifth time since; unfortunately for the Reds, that monumental win in 2011 was the last time they got the choccys against Super Rugby’s most successful side ever.

In fact, the Crusaders have won their last 8 home matches against the Reds; the last time the Queensland side travelled to Christchurch and won was in 1999. They’ve also won their last 7 matches, coming into this one off a bye, with their only loss this season being to the current competition-leading Chiefs in Round One.

The Crusaders have missed an average of only 14.1 tackles per game so far this season, the equal fewest of any team in the competition and more than 6 fewer per game than the Reds, and they have the competition’s second highest points tally despite already using up both of their byes.

Don’t fear, however, for there were again plenty of positives for the Reds to take out of their 30-17 win over the Cheetahs last Saturday night, and they’ll head into this match firmly believing that they are capable of causing an upset.

3 clever tries (2 to Nick Frisby and 1 for Curtis Browning) highlighted a performance which included just 7 missed tackles, a perfect scrum record and a hugely impressive performance in the ruck (94.3% success rate) capped a deserved victory, their second of the season and second in a row at home.

Samu Kerevi (hand) will be a big loss, with Australian U20s star & nominee for 2015 RUPA Newcomer of the Year Campbell Magnay named to replace him in the midfield, but a man to watch could well be rampaging winger Eto Nabuli.

Nabuli’s confidence seems to be growing by the week, and he has edged his way into the competition’s Top 10 for metres gained with 536. The man directly above him on that table, Crusaders star Nemani Nadolo, misses this game through suspension, leaving the door open for Nabuli to stamp his own courageous and destructive running play on the contest.

As for that 2011 final, not many players at all remain for either side; 7 for the Reds and 9 for the Crusaders. Ben Daley, Anthony and Saia Fainga’a, Liam Gill, Greg Holmes, Jake Schatz and Rob Simmons are the remnants of the winning squad from that evening at Suncorp Stadium, while Wyatt Crockett, Ryan Crotty, Andy Ellis, Owen Franks, Robbie Fruean, Kieran Read, Luke Romano, Matt Todd, Sam Whitelock’s memories will be significantly less positive than their opponents’.

While they’ve conceded more than 50 points to the Crusaders in their last two meetings, this Reds side is beginning to thrive under the stewardship of dual Head Coaches Matt O’Connor and Nick Stiles; this match will be an absolute belter to kick-start Round 11.

Brumbies vs. Bulls, (#BRUvBUL) Friday May 6th, 19:45 AEST

The Brumbies’ backline stocks have taken another hit, with Matt Toomua (knee) joining Joe Tomane on the sidelines as they prepare to host a Bulls side who, like the Crusaders, haven’t lost since Round One. That’s offset by the return of Wallabies skipper Stephen Moore, with James Dargaville named on the right wing for his first start of 2016 and Robbie Coleman moving into the number 12 jersey.

The Bulls have historically been known as a tactically safe team, one who prefer to kick for field position, penalty goals and just because they don’t want to pass or run, but this current incarnation has turned that pre-conception well and truly on its’ head.

Yes, they still rank 6th highest for kicks from hand (23.8 per game), however they’re also ranked 5th for offloading (11.8 per game), 5th for carries (112.3 per game) and 6th for tries scored (3.6 per game, half a try more than the 9th ranked Brumbies). They also win more turnovers than anybody else in the competition and are ranked 2nd at lineout time; as both the Melbourne Rebels and Queensland Reds can attest, they’re a very good team indeed.

The positive for the Brumbies is that unlike their conference rivals, they get to play the Bulls on their home turf in front of their passionate supporters. They’ve played twice outside of South Africa this year, pipping the Sunwolves 30-27 in Singapore and downing the Western Force 42-20 last week, however they’ve got a poor travel record in recent seasons; that win in Singapore was their first away from home in 3 seasons!

The Brumbies put in a valiant showing in the Invercargill rain last weekend against the Highlanders, carrying the ball a staggering 159 times in comparison to their opponents’ miserly 64, however an average distance of just 1.81 metres per carry will surely be a concern that Stephen Larkham and his men would have addressed this week; they need to bend the line far more than that.

Their maul was at its’ reliable best in that game, with 10 successful executions, while their ruck percentage of 98.6% is nothing to be sneezed at. The Brumbies need the likes of David Pocock, Sam Carter and Tevita Kuridrani to gain more traction with ball in hand, which we know they are more than capable of, and then they can simply back their systems on defence.

Bulls centre Jan Serfontein scored a double in Perth and his battle with Kuridrani will be critical, while it’s so important for Nigel Ah-Wong to keep Travis Ismaiel quiet out wide; his size will help in that match-up, which looks to be one of the main reasons why Larkham resisted the temptation to move him into the midfield to cover Toomua.

This one could go either way for sure, but the Brumbies know the consequences if they don’t start picking up more points and showing more consistency; they’ll be up for this!

Sunwolves vs. Force, (#SUNvFOR) Saturday May 7th, 15:15 AEST

The Western Force are the second team to head to Japan to face the Sunwolves in their first season of Super Rugby, with the Rebels having been victorious there earlier in the season, and they head in as favourites despite just the one win so far in 2016.

That win was achieved on the road, against the Reds in Round Two, and they welcome back flyhalf Peter Grant to the travelling party after he missed the 42-20 loss to the Bulls last weekend.

The usual suspects impressed in the Force backline despite the disappointing result, with Dane Haylett-Petty racking up 95 metres in carries and Solomoni Rasolea 71m from 10 carries. It was also great to see Kyle Godwin come off the bench to score a try after what’s been an injury-ravaged season, while skipper Matt Hodgson was fearless in defence with 16 tackles at 100% and 2 turnovers won.

Ian Prior continued his side’s impressive goal kicking record this year with 2 penalties and conversions apiece without a miss; he, Grant and Jono Lance have combined for the Force to be Super Rugby’s most successful goal kickers, averaging 94%! However, the Force are one of only three teams in the competition (Sharks & Stormers) to average more penalty goals (2.4) per game than tries (1.2), a situation that they desperately need to rectify this weekend against a side who despite sitting low down on the table is averaging 22.5 points per game, more than 6 points more than the Force.

The Sunwolves, after a 36-28 win against fellow newcomers Jaguares, will now be searching for consecutive wins for the first time in their young history. There are some familiar faces for Australian Rugby fans in former Rebels hooker Shota Horie, the Sunwolves’ Captain and talisman, and former Reds backrower Ed Quirk.

Horie has scored 3 tries to sit second for his side behind former Western Force winger Akihito Yamada (5), while former Hurricanes pivot Tusi Pisi has led the team around the paddock with aplomb, ranked equal 9th for points scored in the competition with 78. Quirk was huge in their first win, claiming 2 crucial turnovers, however defensively his side need to focus on plugging gaps as they average concession of 5.5 tries per game, second last in the competition.

The Force haven’t won outside of Australia since Round 13, 2014, but if they do so here it will be just the tonic for them to kick on and surprise some teams in the second half of the season.

Waratahs vs. Cheetahs, (#WARvCHE) Saturday May 7th, 19:45 AEST

What a difference a fortnight makes! Three weeks when they went down to the Brumbies at home, the doomsayers were writing the Waratahs’ 2016 season off. Former Wallabies Coach Bob Dwyer went as far as saying he couldn’t find room for Michael Hooper, Australia’s Vice Captain and incumbent Number 7, in the starting line-up for the June Test series against England.

Fast forward to now, and the ‘Tahs are back on home soil and gunning for three in a row after hugely impressive away wins in Perth and Cape Town. Their two byes for the season out of the way, they could top the Australian conference after this weekend and retain a game in hand on the Brumbies if they win and the Canberrans don’t, and Hooper’s form has been a talking point for the last few days for all of the right reasons!

He’s averaged 12.5 tackles and 1 turnover per week over those two wins, while young tighthead Tom Robertson was a shining light in Cape Town with 25 ruck involvements and 14 tackles as his side scrummaged at 100% again.

Israel Folau has 6 tries from just 8 matches, on track to challenge his career-best 12 from the 2014 Super Rugby season, and he’s ranked 3rd in the competition for run metres with 636 (at an average of 6.69 metres per carry, for which his total of 95 sees him ranked 6th overall).

In Kurtley Beale, they have one of the competition’s in-form players whose offloading capabilities are almost unrivalled; he’s second in the competition, the same position Hooper ranks for tackling.

Notoriously slow starters in 2016, the Waratahs have conceded the second least tries after half time (8) but have only scored 11 in the first half themselves, better than only the Rebels, Reds, Sunwolves, Sharks and Western Force.

And while the Cheetahs have only won two matches this year, both against the Sunwolves, they are averaging nearly 30 points a game and have a great recent record against the Waratahs. They’ve won 3 of these sides’ last 4 meetings, averaging 29 points per game in the process, and the Waratahs haven’t won at home since Round One; not pretty reading.

More pleasing on the eye to ‘Tahs supporters is that this will be the Cheetahs’ third match in a tour of Australia in which they are yet to register a win; in fact, they’ve won only one of their last 7 matches away from home against Australian opposition.

The Waratahs have scored 13 tries from possession originating within their own half of the field, the most of any Australian team and the third most in the competition, and it’s that sort of inspired Rugby that will see them keep the heat on in the race for the Australian conference; this will be running Rugby at breakneck pace!