Stat Attack: Round Seven, 2016
957

By Pete Fairbairn, 06.04.16

Round seven of the 2016 Super Rugby competition brings a first bye for the Australian conference’s joint leaders, the Brumbies and Rebels, while for the Waratahs it’s their second bye.

Therefore it’s just the Reds and Western Force in action, both playing home games against New Zealand opposition who come into the match in red-hot form.

Force vs. Crusaders, (#FORvCRU) Friday April 8th, 21:00 (AEST), Perth:

Friday night sees the Western Force host the seven-time champion Crusaders, who have called up All Black Israel Dagg and former Rebels hooker Ged Robinson as injury cover for a game that represents their final stop on a three-match tour that’s also taken in Durban and Johannesburg. Ominously, they’re undefeated on tour thus far and have lost just the one match this season, still sitting only third on the New Zealand conference table behind the excellent Chiefs and Highlanders.

The Force will be pleased to be back at home after a tough tour of New Zealand where they came up second best against the Hurricanes, Chiefs and Highlanders. There’s no shame in that, with those three teams having lost a grand total of four matches between them, and the Force have been without some of their most important players for prolonged periods in 2016.

Western Force stars Tetera Faulkner, Kyle Godwin, Jonno Lance and Luke Morahan have played a combined total of 11 of their side’s 24 matches so far this year, while we’re yet to see the likes of Luke Burton and Francois van Wyk at all. It’s meant that fellow Wallaby hopefuls Adam Coleman, Pek Cowan, Dane Haylett-Petty, Matt Hodgson and Ben Tapuai have been on the field for 2,291 of a possible 2,400 minutes this season; it’s been very tough for the Force to spread the load.

Their main issue has been the final 20 minutes of matches, where for a reason yet to be established they’ve conceded 80 points; exactly four times as many as they’ve been able to score in reply, and the most in the competition. Against the Highlanders, only a late try to centre Jason Emery robbed them of a bonus point; with just five minutes remaining, they were still a massive chance of a win. In contrast, the Crusaders and Stormers are the only two teams to have a positive points differential in each of the four quarters of matches so far this season.

So what do the Force need to do this weekend to please the home fans and get back in the winners’ books? They need to play to their strengths, that’s what! Haylett-Petty has averaged more than 11 carries per game, grabbing nearly 6 metres each time and beating nearly three defenders each week, while Hodgson continues to lead the tackling chart (a whopping 15 tackles clear of Blake Gibson (Blues) and Shane Christie (Highlanders) if you don’t mind!).

Last week their forward pack gave them plenty of impetus going forward, with Coleman, Faulkner, Ben McCalman and Heath Tessmann combining for nearly 50 carries. Angus Cottrell is in line for his 50th Force cap this weekend, and he’ll be looking to build after winning 3 turnovers last time out, while Steve Mafi was busy off the bench and has been named to return to the Force starting side.

The Crusaders have won three of their last four matches against the Force, though have been victorious in only one of their last three trips to Western Australia, and the hosts will look to build on those famous wins from 2013 and 2010 this time around.

Reds vs. Highlanders, (#REDvHIG), Saturday April 9th, 19:45, Brisbane:

Speaking off byes, the Reds return after a week off and will be refreshed and raring to go against the Highlanders. Expect a nail biter despite their differing fortunes so far this season; as we’ve so often seen, contrasting strategies and recent clashes so often affect results in this competition and the Reds have won 4 of their last 5 matches against the Highlanders (though none of the last 7 matches between these sides has been decided by more than a converted try).

Last time out against the Waratahs in Round Five, the Reds had more offloads (19-14), beat more defenders (20-16), made more metres (410-379) and had 50 more carries (172 total), as well as 66% of the match possession. Nearly a fifth of the match was played inside the Waratahs’ 22 with the Reds in possession, they went 100% at lineout time and they conceded half as many penalties (8) as the ‘Tahs; the reality is, however, that they still scored just the one penalty try and were defeated 15-13.

Junior Laloifi, Samu Kerevi & Hendrix Tui combined for 40 carries and beat 12 defenders in that game, while Nick Frisby had 5 successful offloads. Saia Fainga’a has made 27 successful throws from 28 attempts, giving him the second highest throw success (96.4%) of any player to have made more than 20 throws so far this season, while Eto Nabuli is averaging two clean breaks per game (form that has seen him recently called in to Michael Cheika’s early season extended Wallaby camp).

They might not have won a game yet but nobody can doubt the Reds’ defence; they’ve conceded just 11 tries so far this year, the 3rd least behind the Stormers (5) and Sharks (8). 8 of those 11 tries have been scored through a maximum of 3 phases, inferring that when the Reds are able to set up their defensive lines properly they are a very tough nut to crack.

We know how good their scrum and lineout are (ranked equal 1st for scrummaging at 94% and 4th for lineouts at 91%), and with the Super U20’s now over will have increased competition from the likes of premiership stars Campbell Magnay, Mack Mason, Lukhan Tui and James Tuttle who will be determined to force their way into consideration.

The indomitable Highlanders make more tackles than anybody else in Super Rugby, averaging 136.7 per game. It’s a facet they pride themselves on, as they ranked 3rd during their inaugural Super Rugby championship last season, as is their depth; they used 38 players in 2015 and have already used 33 this time around.

They are quite rightfully termed a ‘champion term’, but as the Reds continue to take steps towards turning their season around they are capable of kick-starting it this Saturday night and beginning their own pursuit of that title.

06.04.16
Pete Fairbairn
Communications Manager
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