As we head into Super Rugby Round 6, the Brumbies continue to fly the flag highest in the Australian conference.

They sit on top following last week’s gutsy 25-18 win over a plucky Cheetahs outfit in Bloemfontein, and return home to arguably the most eagerly anticipated match of the season thus far, hosting the competition leading Chiefs.

Those same Chiefs were extraordinarily impressive last week, striking repeatedly late on to defeat the Force in Hamilton, and the Brumbies’ will need to bring their defensive best to topple the men from Hamilton. Given they’ve conceded more than 18 points only once this season they’ll continue to back their systems, but the Chiefs have a neat 200 points from their 5 games thus far so the Ponies’ will certainly not be resting on their laurels.

The Force head to Dunedin to face a Highlanders side who are riding high after two straight wins on the road in Australia against the Waratahs and Rebels, and the Westerners will need to turn possession into points if they’re to stand a chance against the defending champions.

While the Reds have a bye, the round concludes with a fascinating Sunday afternoon contest at Allianz Stadium as the Rebels and Waratahs duke it out. This is the only time they’ll meet in 2016, and after two narrow defeats in 2015 the Rebels will be desperate to claim back the Weary Dunlop Shield they last held in 2013.

Highlanders vs. Force (#HIGvFOR), Friday April 1st, 17:35 (AEDT), Dunedin:

We kick things off in the deep south of New Zealand, where the Force have a remarkably impressive record against the Highlanders away from home. They have a 66% winning record in overall head to heads and an even more impressive 80% for matches played in New Zealand; the Highlanders haven’t beaten the Force in New Zealand in a decade!

For the second week in a row, the Force were right in their contest against the Chiefs for the opening hour before running out of steam. Their discipline held firm as they conceded just 5 penalties for the match, but they let themselves down as they lost nearly 1 in 10 rucks (90.7%) and missed 1 in 4 tackles (22/82).

They also made just 8 clean breaks to the Chiefs’ 21, and allowed the Chiefs to rack up over 600 metres from 123 carries; against a Highlanders backline containing multiple threats including All Blacks Malakai Fekitoa, Aaron Smith, Ben Smith and Lima Sopoaga, as well as Fijian flyer Patrick Osborne, they simply need to make their tackles stick and prevent overlaps, while also being conscious of the hosts’ meticulous kicking game.

Solomoni Rasolea, Semisi Masirewa and Dane Haylett-Petty made a combined 215 metres from 29 carries, beating 8 defenders in the process, while Albert Nikoro also made an impact with 4 carries off the bench. Matt Hodgson continues to lead the competition for tackles made, with Highlander Shane Christie a whopping 17 tackles behind in second place, but the simple reality is that they need points.

They’re yet to score a try in the opening 20 minutes of a match; if they could manage that here, based on their good record head to head it could be just the boost they need to pull off an against-the-odds victory.

Brumbies vs. Chiefs (#BRUvCHI), Saturday April 2nd, 19:45, Canberra:

Winning ugly? There’s nothing wrong with it! The Brumbies only gained 207 metres and only kicked 18 times in an attritional match against the Cheetahs in Bloemfontein, with their 14 offloads at a strike rate of 1 every 5.21 carries a highlight, but clearly there’s plenty of room for improvement.

Their scrum and lineout both operated at less than 80%, while they conceded 16 penalties; Chiefs’ sharpshooter Damian McKenzie will surely take advantage of any ill-discipline inside the Brumbies’ defensive half if they don’t nip that in the bud this Saturday. McKenzie leads the competition in points (85), tries (6) and goals (24) scored after five rounds, while his teammate Charlie Ngatai is the second top try scorer (5) after his four tries against the Force last week. Remarkably, the Chiefs’ overall goal kicking percentage, shared between McKenzie and Aaron Cruden, is just 67%; increased accuracy in front of goal would likely see them averaging a half century of points per game!

David Pocock made 11 tackles for the Brumbies last week, nearly twice as many as the next best trio with 6 apiece; Stephen Moore, Matt Toomua and replacement Tom Staniforth, while Pocock won a massive 6 turnovers. His side rank first in the competition for turnovers and average just 15 missed tackles a match, the competition’s second best. Fliers Joe Tomane and James Lowe will also be in a head to head battle; Lowe leads the competition in total metres while Tomane is 1st for clean breaks and 4th for defenders beaten.

The Brumbies have won 8 and drawn 1 of their last 10 home matches against the Chiefs. The spoils are split at 2 wins apiece in the last 4 matches between these teams, including a win apiece in post-season matches. Lock Sam Carter’s yellow card last week was the Brumbies’ fourth of the season; you’d think they’ll need 15 men for the full 80 minutes to get the win here which could put them at the summit of the entire competition.

Waratahs vs. Rebels (#WARvREB), Sunday April 3rd, 16:05, Sydney:

Two cracking matches last season saw the Waratahs do the double over the Rebels, but they didn’t have it all their own way on either occasion. In Round Two at AAMI Park, a late Kurtley Beale try secured a 38-28 win in a match which saw 2015 RUPA Newcomer of the Year Sefanaia Naivalu introduce himself to Super Rugby with a try off the bench.

There was controversy when the teams next met on ANZAC Day, with a refereeing blunder influenced by markings on ANZ Stadium from the previous evening’s NRL match leading to what was ultimately the defining try, the Waratahs edging the match 18-16 as Jack Debreczeni showed off his monster boot with Mike Harris off the ground early with injury.

Debreczeni will need to be at his best this weekend as the Rebels go back on the road looking for a first ever win in Sydney after last weekend’s disappointing loss at home to the Highlanders. They’ve had a tough opening five weeks which has included away matches in Perth, Pretoria and Tokyo and with both teams heading into a bye after this week it’s a case of mustering what energy there is left for one massive crack in a contest between two sides pundits tip are fighting for second place in the Australian conference.

The Waratahs are without the injured Bryce Hegarty, Rob Horne, Tolu Latu and Tatafu Polota-Nau while the Rebels will be missing Steve Cummins, Tamati Ellison, Tom English, Colby Fainga’a Harris and Naivalu. The Waratahs average more points per game against the Rebels (31.8) than against any other team in the Australasian Group.

The Rebels need to improve their lineout, after going at just 71% against the Highlanders who in turn won all of their 14 throws. Their ruck percentage was still 96.9% while the Highlanders only made 1 clean break all match. Dom Shipperley made 2 clean breaks himself among 10 carries, while workhorses Luke Jones and Lopeti Timani combined for 25 carries and Reece Hodge made 7 carries for 2 clean breaks off the bench.

Sean McMahon (20) has beaten more defenders than any other forward in Super Rugby this season, and the Rebels have the best discipline record in the competition as they concede just 7.6 penalties per game compared to the New South Wales’ 12.8, ranked 17th.

The Waratahs conceded twice as many penalties as the Reds on Sunday (16), only had 34% of possession, went at 71% on lineouts and missed nearly 1 in 5 tackles (20 out of 104). They conceded 9 penalties to front rowers, however Jack Dempsey made 3 turnovers on his starting debut. Continuity is a tough one for the Waratahs; only 15 players have featured in all four of their games this season, with two of those (Latu and Horne) already ruled out of this match.

These sides average close to the same number of points per game (Rebels 22.6 to the Waratahs’ 21.5) and are around the same number for both tackling and lineout success. The Rebels are one of just 5 teams to average above 90% scrum success, while the Waratahs have both scored and conceded most of their tries from the 1st phases. Who wins this one? It’s anybody’s call!

Stats kindly provided by Opta Sports.